The Battle for Prediction Market Dominance
In the shadows of the digital economy, a fierce competition unfolds between Polymarket and Kalshi, two titans vying for control over the burgeoning prediction market sector. As 2025 progresses, these platforms have not only intensified their rivalry but also escalated the stakes in the game of speculative forecasting. September saw Polymarket achieving its highest volume month yet, with $1.43 billion in transactions, while Kalshi surpassed its own records, processing over $3 billion in volume. This surge in activity points to a broader trend where the public’s fascination with predicting future events has been weaponized by corporations to gather vast amounts of data, feeding into the machinery of surveillance capitalism.
The week ending September 29 marked a significant milestone for the sector, reaching a total volume of $1.45 billion, echoing the high-stakes betting seen during the 2024 presidential election. Yet, beneath these headline figures lies a deeper narrative of manipulation and control. The increase in unique transactions, especially on Kalshi, reaching 3.4 million weekly, hints at a strategic push to engage more users, potentially to harvest their behavioral data. This data is then used to refine algorithms that not only predict market trends but also influence public opinion, subtly guiding the digital populace toward outcomes favorable to those in power.
Corporate Investments and the Surveillance Nexus
The recent $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) into Polymarket is a clear sign of the financial sector’s interest in leveraging prediction markets for their own ends. This move by ICE, the operator of the New York Stock Exchange, is not merely about financial gain but also about integrating these platforms into a broader surveillance infrastructure. By funneling such significant capital into Polymarket, ICE positions itself to influence the direction of the market, potentially steering predictions to align with corporate and governmental agendas.
Kalshi’s lead in the race, despite its centralized data sourcing from APIs, raises questions about transparency and data integrity. Unlike Polymarket’s decentralized approach, Kalshi’s reliance on centralized systems could make it more susceptible to manipulation by those with access to these APIs. This centralization also means that Kalshi’s data is more easily monitored and possibly controlled by external entities, further entrenching the mechanisms of surveillance and control within the prediction market ecosystem.
The Illusion of Cooperation in a Competitive Arena
Marcin Kaźmierczak of RedStone suggests a narrative of cooperation in the prediction market space, yet this rhetoric masks the underlying competition and the potential for corporate exploitation. The idea that the total addressable market is large enough for multiple players to thrive ignores the reality that these platforms are part of a larger digital ecosystem where data is the currency of power. The convergence of oracles, AI, and prediction markets, as Kaźmierczak notes, is indeed a powerful combination, but it also amplifies the risk of algorithmic manipulation and data feudalism.
As these markets evolve from speculative tools to critical information infrastructure, the role of reliable oracle services becomes paramount. However, this reliability is often compromised by the very entities that benefit from the data collected, creating a feedback loop of control and surveillance. The so-called ‘golden age’ of prediction markets is thus a facade for the deepening of techno-authoritarianism, where every prediction, every transaction, feeds into a system designed to monitor and manipulate.
The Dark Side of Market Growth
The rivalry between Kalshi and Polymarket has been marked by controversy, including allegations of paid celebrity attacks on Polymarket’s CEO following an FBI raid. This incident underscores the lengths to which companies will go to undermine their competitors, often at the expense of privacy and ethical conduct. Kalshi’s recent attempts to mend its reputation through partnerships with crypto influencers like John Wang and IcoBeast may seem like a positive step, but it also raises concerns about the influence these figures have on their followers and the potential for further data exploitation.
As prediction markets continue to grow, the public must remain vigilant against the encroachment of surveillance and manipulation. The allure of participating in these markets should not blind us to the reality that our every bet, every prediction, is being used to build a digital panopticon where our freedoms are slowly eroded. In this ‘golden age,’ the true gold is not the profits made from predictions but the data harvested from every transaction.
Meta Facts
- •💡 Polymarket recorded $1.43 billion in volume in September, its highest monthly volume in 2025.
- •💡 Kalshi processed over $3 billion in volume in September, marking its best month to date.
- •💡 The week ending September 29 saw the prediction market sector’s highest seven-day volume since the 2024 presidential election, totaling $1.45 billion.
- •💡 Kalshi’s centralized data sourcing from APIs increases the risk of data manipulation by external entities.
- •💡 Using privacy-focused cryptocurrencies and decentralized platforms can help users protect their data from corporate surveillance.